It came a bit out of the blue when Rishi Sunak called a General Election for July 4^th. Announcing it whilst getting soaking wet in the torrential rain outside Downing Street presented the perfect visual metaphor for the subsequent damp squib that the campaign is shaping up to be. Calling it for the first week of the Scottish school holidays is equally metaphoric for how little consideration the Tories give to Scotland.

 

Deciding that this will be as good as it gets for them, the Tories have gambled on a pre-election interest rate cut and apparently improved economic circumstances to go in July. Suffice to say that how terrible is the situation that we find ourselves in when they believe that this is as good as it is going to get?

 

The dominant narrative of the election is that of Labour sweeping back to power. After the Tories disastrous first week of campaigning (National Service anyone?), a poll in The Observer newspaper puts Labour ahead by the same margin as during Liz Truss’ ill fated government. Yet the nagging doubt remains that like some monstrous character from a horror the film the Tories will re-appear in the final frame after everyone assuming they had been dispatched.

 

Whilst the imminent demise of this government is keenly anticipated, the same cannot be said of the prospect of a Starmer-led Labour Party. Promising nothing other than to stick to the Tories spending plans there is little to excite voters with the sense of a potential change from the austerity agenda so ruthlessly pursued by the Tories over the last 14 years. Ruthlessly pursuing left-wing candidates further adds to the sense that this is a party that will simply follow the status quo and therefore any Labour success will be more down to the anti-Tory mood than a positive endorsement of the party’s non-existent programme.

 

For this reason, results in Scotland are not easy to predict. Are rumours of the SNP’s demise being greatly exaggerated by a Westminster establishment keen to quash independence or is their underwhelming performance and internal woes going to feed into a ‘get the Tories out at all costs’ mentality, allowing Labour to return to its pre-eminent position in Scottish politics? This we will find out after the election and the possible permutations about where this leaves the independence movement will require consideration particularly as the election may put another nail in the coffin for the ‘if we keep giving the SNP a mandate then the independence referendum will surely come’ post 2014 strategy. Something for left-wing independence and pro-democracy supporters to consider.

  

Similarly, for the left the ramifications of this election will be one of the factors that will shape a strategy for those like Socialists for Independence who are charting a course for the creation of a credible, class based socialist vision for Scotland over the next few years. In what ways might the dynamic shift if there is a majority Labour government as there will be pressure under those circumstances for Starmer to deliver on issues like cost of living, climate and workers’ rights? A minority Labour government may lessen those expectations, but they will not go away. In either circumstance how might that play for developing a movement arounds Scotland’s right to decide its own future? The Tories coming back may see the flaring up of the independence question as well as the possibility of industrial unrest as people react against a government that will inevitably cut jobs and services.

 

Socialists for Independence want to see the Tories out and a continued pro-independence majority in Scotland’s political representatives. We offer support and solidarity to those who will promote socialist ideas either individually or under their party banner. However, with the political vacuity that is being exposed in this election the abiding message is that rebuilding the socialist left in Scotland remains the most urgent priority for those seeking to end the injustice and inequality of capitalism.