The General Election, Scotland and the future of independence

It seems like it couldn’t be more straightforward. Labour wiped out the Tories, condemning them to their lowest number of seats ever and giving them the punishment they deserved for 14 years of callousness, cronyism and corruption. 

For millions of us it felt good to see the likes of Truss, Rees Mogg and others get what they deserved. For many, getting rid of the Tories was their overriding priority and they voted accordingly.

Yet the picture is much more complex than that. Due to the vagaries of the first past post system Labour saw its share of seats grow by 63% on a vote share of 34%, only two percentage points higher than Corbyn’s much maligned result in 2019. 

Allied with a 60% turn out, the second lowest in a UK election since 1885, it is clear that there is little enthusiasm for the managerial, free market policies on offer from Britain’s big two parties.

Is it therefore the case that it is in the margins that the most interesting elements of this election are to be found? 

The most worrying development was the votes achieved by Reform. Whilst a political party only in name this outfit of reactionary bigots bankrolled by multimillionaires secured the third largest vote share with 14%. Worryingly this was reflected to some extent in Scotland where they lost their deposits in only 10 seats, 6 less than the Tories, despite them having absolutely no presence other than their disproportionate media coverage.  

The outlines of a populist right-wing movement can be seen in this vote. As it can also be in the maneuvering of Braverman and others who are positioning themselves to lead the Tories into the arms of Reform and further poison the well in their rhetoric about immigrants and the working class.

 This threat cannot be ignored, particularly given the timidity of Starmer’s Labour who have gone out of their way to dampen any hopes of change which may act to fuel the fire for the far right.  The potential for such a process will sharpen the need for the kind of left unity proposed by Socialists for Independence.

A less commented on development in England was the challenge that came to Labour from the left. Given it was before the weaknesses of Starmer’s policies being exposed in practice, victories for various independents, including Jeremy Corbyn and for the Greens, showed there is a constituency of people already acutely aware of Labour’s shortcomings particularly on issues like Palestine and privatisation of public services, particularly in the NHS. 

Again, this highlights that it may be only a matter of time before opposition evolves against the Labour government and there is the potential that it may be led by forces from the left as working class communities continue to be starved of public investment.

In Scotland the picture was different and for the pro-independence left represents a significant shift from the shape Scottish politics has taken in the aftermath of the independence referendum. 

Labour’s share of the vote went up by 16.7% to 35.3%, better than its performance in England and Wales. It gained 36 seats and, in a stroke, wiped out SNP representation across the Central Belt which it had lost after siding with the Tories in 2014. Arrogantly they will believe that this means that normal service has been restored and look to complete the job in 2026 of putting the pro-independence campaign back in its box. 

The reason for this surge in support is primarily the desire of working-class Scots to see the back of the Tories, but there can be no denying that it also stems from widespread dissatisfaction with the SNP, who lost 500 000 votes and 39 seats. This result has been brewing for some time for the SNP as financial scandal, internal division and failure to effectively challenge Westminster has disillusioned many of its former supporters.

 

The narrative that this result pushes the prospects for independence back for a number of years will have an impact, but the fact remains that opinion is still split pretty much at 50-50 and support for independence has not fallen in line with the decline in the SNP’s fortunes. 

What this result decisively represents however is the end of the post-2014 strategy of ‘if we give the SNP a mandate then independence will come’. Already largely discredited after the Supreme Court’s decision to deny a referendum, consideration must now be given to how the dial can be moved in building support for independence. What prospectus can be offered that independence can provide solutions that Starmer’s government can’t will have to be considered urgently.

For Socialists for Independence, it also means considering how his result leaves the democratic demand for Scotland’s right to decide. Starmer, secure in his comfortable majority, will not be inclined to place the Union under threat by offering a referendum. Indeed, with the arch-unionist Ian Murray in charge at the Scottish Office, democratic demands to protect the current devolution settlement may be necessary as Labour seeks to by-pass and marginalize the Scottish Government to secure victory in 2026.

Despite the dominant narrative of the 2024 election being Labour’s rout of the Tories the fact remains that their support is much weaker than the result suggests. The low turnout, particularly in working class areas, shows that people are unconvinced that anything will fundamentally change and unlike in 1997 few illusions exist that Labour will improve things in any significant way. 

In Scotland the burning need remains for the left to look at ways to co-operate, build trust and develop compelling narratives and policies that will offer ways to improve the lives of those who bear the brunt of the failure of capitalism to improve their lives.